LTD2 E-Book Update Coming Soon

I have recently been testing a new, more simplified way of selecting my lay the draw selections and boy has it been effective.

Not only am I spending less time finding games, but I’m also finding more winners, in turn increasing my strike rate and profits.

Since the 6th of March, I’ve selected 15 LTD2 trades (all published on the website and Telegram channel) and made over 4 pts profit.

It would have been more but came out just before HT in the Juve game with Lazio 1-0 up for a small loss, only to see Juventus score three goals before 60′. Never mind, it’s all about being consistent. Some you win, some you lose.

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The Best Leagues For Lay The Draw

Just a quick update and insights on picking the correct games for LTD2.

As you may know, I’ve now started to publish some of my own selections once again on the site, but wanted to just touch on the best leagues to use if you are picking your own trades.

With the major European leagues not due to start again until September, we are currently trading the Summer leagues.

I generally like the Swedish leagues for LTD, however, this season the Allsvenskan and Superettan have not been good.

As you can see below for the Swedish Allsvenskan, 37% of the matches this season have been a draw!

The Superettan hasn’t fared much better either with 33% of matches a draw and only 2.67 goals per match.

When trading or betting, we need as much of an edge as possible in order to win consistently.

It is, therefore, a no brainer to avoid most of the games in these leagues at this time.

Now compare those above to say the Australian A-League.

So just 20% draws and an average of 2.96 goals per match.

The Norwegian Eliteserien is usually good. Lets take a look at that one.

Not too bad. 24% draws and an average of 3.10 goals per match which is good.

Then there’s the Norwegian 1st Division.

22% draws and 3.46 goals per match on average. Very nice and suitable for LTD2.

May favourite leagues are definitely the winter leagues though such as the English Premier, Italy Serie A, German Bundesliga etc.

English Premier League 2019/20 – 24% and 2.72 goals avg per match

Italy Serie A 2019/20 – 22% and 3.04 avg goals per match.

Germany Bundesliga 2019/20 – 22% and 3.21 avg goals per match.

I will generally avoid the Brazilian leagues as they are usually low scoring. I also don’t like the Portuguese leagues much either.

There are of course no guarantees that a game won’t be a draw at 60/65′ or at full time, but like I say, any advantage/edge/insight that we have pre-match can only help us in the long run.

All the best.

Testing LTD3 – The Golden Goose Of Lay The Draw Systems

I am currently testing my LTD3 system once again which promises to be extremely lucrative with a very high strike rate.

So, way back in 2017/2018 I tested the LTD3 system over a three month period. I recently started testing the system once again and to date have recorded the following figures.

Method #1 (Full match): 135/154 – 87.66% Strike Rate

Method #2 (Second half): 52/57 – 91.22% Strike Rate

During testing and using varying stakes of between £5 and £10, I have made a profit to date (29/10/2020) of £245.93.

As you can see, the second half system has fewer selections but a slightly better strike rate.

Once I am happy that the system is still providing such a high strike rate and return, I will be creating a guide that you can download so you too can prosper from what I believe will be one of the best LTD systems around.

The beauty of the LTD3 system is that finding selections takes minutes. There is no requirement to go deep into statistical analysis or any of that. Entry and exit points are also straightforward with three different ways of trading the system depending on your attitude towards risk.

I’m really excited about its potential and have recorded every single trade that I have tested to give me an accurate picture so that I can determine its viability over the long-term. It looks very good though!

So stay tuned and keep coming back periodically to see how I am doing.

Although at this time I am not sharing the process and the tips, I will be posting my results each day which you will be able to view on the home page.

New FREE Service Coming Soon

Since September 2018, I have been running a paid lay the draw subscription service.

Unfortunately, due to time constraints, I will be reverting back to the free service in March 2019.

This will mean a few changes which will be:-

Free tips posted to the website

With the paid subscription service, I was sending out selections each day via email. However, in March I will just be posting these to the website each day as before.

New detailed LTD2 guide to download

Instead of charging a monthly subscription fee, I will be charging a one-off fee of £14.99 for the lay the draw PDF guide. The guide will contain lots of info on how to trade LTD2 and will also show you how to go about selecting your own trades. There will also be examples of trades that I have recently done myself to show you how everything works.

The download fee will also mean you will receive future revisions of the guide free of charge.

No more live Twitter trades

With the paid service I was also doing a certain amount of live Twitter trading. This is also very time consuming and is also difficult to do if I am trading via my mobile phone. Therefore, with the free service, this will no longer be available. It isn’t really necessary anyway as the systems will be easy to follow.

That’s it!

Stay tuned and keep checking the home page in early March for the first tips.

How Do You Define Value In Football Trading?

In a recent interview, cult football trading expert ‘Psychoff‘ was quoted as saying something along the lines of:-

“Value can’t be defined. Value is a feeling.”

This statement really resonates with me, as I believe that many traders put too much emphasis on stats and not enough emphasis on our feelings and intuition.

I myself have subscribed to systems in the past where software is used to show ‘value trades’ or ‘value tips’, but what is value and how do you determine if you have it or not?

For me, value is determined by how we perceive the flow of a football match, the likelihood of a goal being scored and the odds on offer at the time. It’s not so much about whether you are laying under 2.5 goals or backing over 3.5 goals, but rather the timing of your entry into the trade.

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SH LTD – The Golden Ticket?

Over the past year or so (yes, that long), I’ve been testing another lay the draw system that you may have previously seen me refer to on the website as ‘LTD3’.

During this time I traded 116 selections and had a win rate of 85.34% (99 wins).

When testing I was trading the selections similar to the LTD2 system in that I would trade out when one team took a two goal lead. However, if the game went beyond 65’, I would let it run and come out when the next goal was scored for a profit or the game ended goalless, which would result in a loss of around 2.5 pts.

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Should I Use Lay The Draw Insurance?

This is a question I am asked from time to time so thought I would write a short post on the subject.

Firstly, what do we mean by insurance?

So, when we lay the draw or do any other trade we have a liability. Our liability is our maximum potential loss.

So if we lay the draw for for £10 at 3.5 our liability would be £25. 10 x 3.5 – 10 = 25.

By using insurance, we are willing to risk a little more liability in order to minimise our overall risk and try to avoid a bigger loss than we may otherwise experience.

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Winning Is Easy, Losing Is Hard

My recent rare spell of one point losses got me thinking and prompted me to write a short post about losing, our attitudes to it and how we can stop it eating into our confidence.

If you are new to trading, it’s easy to panic after a loss or two. Some will chase losses and blow their trading banks. Or if they just can’t stomach losing, give up all together. After all, that’s what real losers do isn’t it?

So how do you deal with losing trades or heaven forbid, losing runs?

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Working On A New Lay The Draw Strategy

I’m currently working on a new Lay the Draw strategy that promises to be a real bank booster!

It’s all theoretical at the moment, but I will be testing the new system on and off over the next month or two and will report back with my results via the website once done.

My trading results have been good over the past 6 months and the bank has grown nicely; however, I still feel that that there is room for improvement and that I can make my current systems and selection processes more refined and potentially more profitable.

That’s the plan anyway.

So stay tuned and keep coming back to the site or sign-up to my newsletter for further updates.

Trading Results – 6th September 2017


18:00 – LTD1 FULL – Bodo Glimt v Sandnes ULF (0-0) – Lost

Well, not sure what happened there!

Both teams are generally goal machines with Bodo Glimt averaging 3.5 goals per game and Sandnes 1.90. Both teams usually concede too, but not today unfortunately. Prior to this game neither team had recorded a 0-0 in a very long time.

Just one of those occasions when everything looks spot on, but goals just don’t come for whatever reason. So frustrating! Oh well, that’s trading. These things are sent to test our resolve. 😉 We move on to the next game!

Continue reading “Trading Results – 6th September 2017”