5k Challenge Results – Month 4 – Profit +7.64 Pts

Month 4 of my 5K Challenge saw another profit of +7.64 pts or £76.47 to my initial £10 one-point stakes.

As a result of my bank growth, I am now using stakes with a maximum liability of £13, which is 2% of my current bank.

Over the course of month 4 (12th November to 11th December), I traded a total of 41 games with 30 wins and 11 loses (73.17% strike rate).

In total, I staked £324.21 with an average stake of £7.90. This meant that my return or yield on my stakes was 23.58%. Nice!

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How To Maximise Value When Football Trading

In this post, I want to just take a moment to highlight an important aspect to trading football matches, which is how to maximise the value that we are getting.

If you follow me with my 5K Challenge you will know that I usually enter my trades by dripping my stakes in from the start.

I will mainly use four or five chunks starting at kick-off and gradually adding more in as the game progresses. So for example, if doing Over 2.5, adding 0.2 pts at 1.60, 0.2 pts at 1.70, 0.2 pts at 1.80, 0.2 pts at 1.90 and 0.2 at 2.0.

I will usually set these up prior to kick-off. If a goal goes in early I simply cancel any that have not been matched.

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Telegram Channel Now Added

I’ve now activated my new Telegram channel so that you can be alerted to any 5K Challenge or Lay the Draw selections that I post to the site.

With so many of us now using smartphones, it makes sense to use Telegram.

You can also install the Telegram app to both mobile or desktop platforms.

My channel can be found here https://t.me/myfootytrading

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New FREE Service Coming Soon

Since September 2018, I have been running a paid lay the draw subscription service.

Unfortunately, due to time constraints, I will be reverting back to the free service in March 2019.

This will mean a few changes which will be:-

Free tips posted to the website

With the paid subscription service, I was sending out selections each day via email. However, in March I will just be posting these to the website each day as before.

New detailed LTD2 guide to download

Instead of charging a monthly subscription fee, I will be charging a one-off fee of £14.99 for the lay the draw PDF guide. The guide will contain lots of info on how to trade LTD2 and will also show you how to go about selecting your own trades. There will also be examples of trades that I have recently done myself to show you how everything works.

The download fee will also mean you will receive future revisions of the guide free of charge.

No more live Twitter trades

With the paid service I was also doing a certain amount of live Twitter trading. This is also very time consuming and is also difficult to do if I am trading via my mobile phone. Therefore, with the free service, this will no longer be available. It isn’t really necessary anyway as the systems will be easy to follow.

That’s it!

Stay tuned and keep checking the home page in early March for the first tips.

How Do You Define Value In Football Trading?

In a recent interview, cult football trading expert ‘Psychoff‘ was quoted as saying something along the lines of:-

“Value can’t be defined. Value is a feeling.”

This statement really resonates with me, as I believe that many traders put too much emphasis on stats and not enough emphasis on our feelings and intuition.

I myself have subscribed to systems in the past where software is used to show ‘value trades’ or ‘value tips’, but what is value and how do you determine if you have it or not?

For me, value is determined by how we perceive the flow of a football match, the likelihood of a goal being scored and the odds on offer at the time. It’s not so much about whether you are laying under 2.5 goals or backing over 3.5 goals, but rather the timing of your entry into the trade.

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SH LTD – The Golden Ticket?

Over the past year or so (yes, that long), I’ve been testing another lay the draw system that you may have previously seen me refer to on the website as ‘LTD3’.

During this time I traded 116 selections and had a win rate of 85.34% (99 wins).

When testing I was trading the selections similar to the LTD2 system in that I would trade out when one team took a two goal lead. However, if the game went beyond 65’, I would let it run and come out when the next goal was scored for a profit or the game ended goalless, which would result in a loss of around 2.5 pts.

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Should I Use Lay The Draw Insurance?

This is a question I am asked from time to time so thought I would write a short post on the subject.

Firstly, what do we mean by insurance?

So, when we lay the draw or do any other trade we have a liability. Our liability is our maximum potential loss.

So if we lay the draw for for £10 at 3.5 our liability would be £25. 10 x 3.5 – 10 = 25.

By using insurance, we are willing to risk a little more liability in order to minimise our overall risk and try to avoid a bigger loss than we may otherwise experience.

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Winning Is Easy, Losing Is Hard

My recent rare spell of one point losses got me thinking and prompted me to write a short post about losing, our attitudes to it and how we can stop it eating into our confidence.

If you are new to trading, it’s easy to panic after a loss or two. Some will chase losses and blow their trading banks. Or if they just can’t stomach losing, give up all together. After all, that’s what real losers do isn’t it?

So how do you deal with losing trades or heaven forbid, losing runs?

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How To Place A Bet On Betfair Exchange For Less Than £2

At this moment in time, the minimum bet stake you can place on the Betfair Exchange is £2.

Sometimes though, you may want to place a trade for less than £2. For example, if you are testing a system or maybe you are new to football trading and want to test the water.

Whatever the reason, below I will show you how you can trade on Betfair for less than the £2 minimum stake.

The method is similar whether you are backing or laying. You can click on any of the images below to see a larger version.

The first step is to obviously open the market in which you wish to trade. In my case it is the Correct Score market in the Roma v Napoli game.

Correct score market Betfair Continue reading “How To Place A Bet On Betfair Exchange For Less Than £2”

What Are The Best Leagues For Football Trading?

One of the first steps when using any football trading system is to decide on which leagues you will be trading.

Not all leagues are created equal and whether you utilise the overs markets, lay the draw or both teams to score, the one thing you are going to need is plenty of goals.

Personally, I use lay the draw a lot and have a number of different variations such as LTD1 and LTD2, but regardless as to which I am using the fact remains that I will need goals so that I have as many opportunities as possible to trade out for a profit.

But which leagues are the best?

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