Do you want to win more of your football trades?
Of course, you do. Who wouldn’t?
We all want to win more but the truth is that the vast majority of traders lose on a regular basis.
But why is that?
It can be for a number of reasons, however, I wanted to touch on some of the ways you can win more.
Below I share with you three of my biggest tips that will help you to win more and set you on your path to becoming a successful Betfair trader.
#1 – Learn to take a loss
This may seem a bit contradictory, but learning to embrace losing can actually make you more profitable in the long run.
This has been one of the biggest lessons I’ve learned and has helped me become more profitable as a football trader.
Let me explain.
A while back, I read a book about stock investing and came across a section that recommended “riding the winners for longer”, but “dropping the losing trades quickly”.
And you know what? That’s not only true of stocks, it’s true for trading sports as well.
How often have you sat there ‘hoping’ the game was going to pick up and the sides actually made an effort to score a goal, only to see your losses continue to drain away as the game headed for a 0-0 bore draw?
If you’ve watched as many games as I have, you’ll know what I’m talking about.
As you know, with my own football trading systems, I try to wait at least 10 minutes before entering a trade so I can see how the game is progressing and whether or not goals look likely.
If things don’t pick up in terms of attacking play and goal attempts, I don’t enter the trade. Simple!
However, if I’m happy that at least one of the teams looks like they want to take the three points, I am in.
That tip alone will prevent you from entering trades too early and in some cases avoid the bad games altogether. You’ll also take a bigger price in the process which is so important. (See value section below)
How about if you’ve already entered the trade?
Well, if you’re watching the game, make sure there is sufficient action. If the game dies down and goes into a lull, trade out for a small loss. It‘s better to do that than to desperately hang on in the hope that things will pick up again.
If need be, re-enter the trade if the game does warm up again. But don’t just sit there hoping things will change. Take action!
Sometimes, football trades just don’t go to plan. That’s not your fault, it’s just the way it is. A match can look good on paper but just doesn’t live up to our expectations. We’re not bloody clairvoyants after all.
So do yourself a favour. Exit the trade and move on!
It’s frustrating, but sometimes managers set the teams up not to lose, meaning you get those boring stalemates leading you to scream at the players, whilst reminding them of just how much money they are paid!
Unfortunately, sport is also a business. And sometimes, securing a point can be vital to a club’s bottom line and long-term profitability. Relegation can be incredibly expensive.
So what if you do find a goal or two?
Then like the statement further up says, “ride your winners for longer”. If I get an early goal I will usually wait 5-10 minutes to see if the goal brings the game to life or not. If it does, I will look for another goal. If not, I will either take the profit or remove all my liability and see if I can make a bit more profit with zero risk to my bank.
Goals quite often come along like buses, one soon after the other. Wait a few minutes and see if you can maximise your profits. If not, trade out.
And if you can make scratch late on, do so. Protect your football trading bank at all costs.
Football trading is not only about winning more. It’s also about losing less!
Remember. Ride those winners longer but dump those losers fast!
#2 – Make sure you are trading with VALUE
I will admit that it’s only relatively recently that I started looking more at the value side of trading.
If you purchased my guide – How to make consistent profits using Over 2.5 and BTTS, you’ll have discovered a bit more about the concept of value betting and exactly how I go about finding my value bets.
You see, if you consistently bet and take a price lower than the true probability of the outcome, you will lose in the long run.
I will explain quickly using the flip of a coin.
Let’s say we flipped a coin together 100 times. If you guessed right I would give you £1 but if you were wrong, you gave me £1. How do you think we would do after 100 tosses?
Most likely, either one of us would win 45-55 spins and we would come out around even, give or take a few pounds.
But what if I said that every time you guessed correctly that I would give you £1.50 and I would win £1.
Do you think that it would be a better deal for you?
Would it be a bet worth taking?
Damn right!
50 wins @ £1.50 = £75
50 losses @ £1.00 = £50
Profit = £25.
In decimal odds, the true probability of you guessing correctly is 2.0 (£1 profit) as there are only two possible outcomes, heads or tails. But on this occasion, you are getting odds of 2.5 (£1.50 profit).
The value is increased as you have bet with a price that is far greater than the true probability of the outcome occurring. In this case, it’s you and I guessing heads or tails.
However, if you consistently back teams, markets or horses etc at inflated odds, you will win in the long run. That’s value betting!
It doesn’t matter which of the football trading strategies you are using. Always make sure the price you are trading is in YOUR favour.
Learn how to maximise value when football trading.
# 3 – Stop overtrading and stick to your system
Overtrading and betting willy nilly is a common reason for losing your trading bank.
I did this a lot in the past.
My systems would do well, but when I was bored and watching the TV, I would get distracted and get Betfair up on my phone.
I would then mug punt in effect, looking for ‘opportunities’ that weren’t really there.
The end result? Loss after loss and a dent in my trading bank.
It’s a lack of discipline, pure and simple.
Whether you follow my 5K Challenge or Lay the Draw systems or have your own, stick to them and do not deviate.
You spent time profiling those matches for a reason. Don’t throw away your profits by joining the other 95% of losers on Betfair.
Trade smart. If you’re bored, find something else to do.
Just don’t open Betfair and trade a game without spending sufficient time profiling it.
I can guarantee you, that if you stick to the above, you WILL win more and lose less.
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