Should I Use Lay The Draw Insurance?

This is a question I am asked from time to time so thought I would write a short post on the subject.

Firstly, what do we mean by insurance?

So, when we lay the draw or do any other trade we have a liability. Our liability is our maximum potential loss.

So if we lay the draw for for £10 at 3.5 our liability would be £25. 10 x 3.5 – 10 = 25.

By using insurance, we are willing to risk a little more liability in order to minimise our overall risk and try to avoid a bigger loss than we may otherwise experience.

As an example, one of my own favourite insurances that has saved my bacon on many occassions is my two more goals insurance.

So usually with my LTD2 system, you will trade out around 65′ if the match is still a draw. Sometimes when the game is still tied at 65′, I can feel that there are more goals to come and may decide to back over 1.5 (if 0-0) or over 3.5 (if 1-1). The reason for this is that the majority of goals are scored in the second half and especially later in games. If you have watched enough matches you will see a ton of goals being scored after 65′.

If a goal goes in soon after you back over 1.5 or 3.5 you will then have an instant profit that will off-set the loss from the lay the draw trade. You could let the overs bet run to the end of the game in order to extract a nice profit or come out after the first goal or you could even lay over 1.5/3.5 for the same stake meaning that you would still have a good profit if there is another goal or make scratch if not. This would mean that you would still have a 1 point loss from the lay the draw trade. If you get two goals you are probably going to end up with a net profit.

Let’s give you a scenario to work with.

So I have just layed the draw on Liverpool v Arsenal for £10 at 3.6 with a liability of £26.

After 65′, my stop loss is reached and I have a loss of £10 as the game is now 1-1. At this point we usually trade out for a 1 point loss or in this case £10.

I feel that more goals are due so back over 3.5 goals for £5 at 4.0 and cash out my lay the draw trade. Make sure you do the back bet first otherwise there could be a goal seconds after you trade out and not have time to put the overs bet on.

If there are two goals I will have a profit of £15 less commission (5 x 4.0 – 5 = 15). This will wipe out my liability from the LTD trade and give me a small profit.

Lets say that Liverpool score on 70′ to go 2-1 up. The over 3.5 price will now drop and give me an instant profit.

Lets say that I can now green up on the over 3.5 trade and take a profit of £8.00. I can take that and be happy with a net loss of £2.

I decide that another goal will come and decide to lay over 3.5 for £5. This may mean that my profit for another goal would be £10 as some of the green from the first goal will be used to give me scratch if there isn’t another goal. So I will now either, make scratch if the score remains 2-1 or have a profit of around £10 if there are two goals. If there are two goals, the £10 profit will pretty much clear the LTD liability. Job done!

If I let the overs trade run and it doesn’t come off, I will be adding another 0.5 pts to my overall liability.

So lets get back to the original question.

Should I Use Lay The Draw Insurance?

That is entirely up to you and will depend on your attitude to risk.

What I will say is that you should try to be as consistent as possible when using any form of insurance. If you are watching a game or the in-play stats and have a good feeling that there will be more goals then you may want to give it a go.

Remember, any form of insurance will have the potential to add to your total liability. Be consistent when using it and keep track of whether it is being effective for you or not. If it is adding to your bank great. If not, you may want to drop it.