Category: Betfair Football Trading

The 80/20 Rule And How It Can Be Applied To Football Trading

The 80/20 rule, commonly referred to as the Pareto Principle, asserts that approximately 80% of the effects are derived from 20% of the causes. This principle can be observed in various contexts, such as running an online e-commerce store where 80% of profits may originate from just 20% of the products.

Similarly, in terms of productivity, it is often observed that 80% of output is generated by 20% of input or labour. The applications of this principle can be extended to diverse domains, including football trading and betting.

In the context of football trading and betting, the 80/20 rule suggests that a significant portion of your profits or successful outcomes will come from a small percentage of your trades or bets. This means that a small number of favorable situations or selections will generate most of your profits, while the majority may result in losses or marginal gains.

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The Coin Flip Analogy: The Mental Side Of Betting And Trading

In the world of gambling and financial trading, making consistent profits is the ultimate goal. To achieve this, professionals often employ various strategies and tactics, but one often overlooked aspect is the mental side of betting and trading.

Understanding the psychology behind decision-making and embracing a long-term perspective can significantly improve one’s chances of success. A simple coin flip serves as an insightful analogy, reminding us to view bets and trades as part of a larger sequence rather than isolated events.

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Are You Avoiding Pain?

One of the primary reasons that the vast majority of traders fail is that they are constantly looking to avoid pain.

But what do I mean by ‘avoiding pain’?

You may remember that I have spoken a lot in my previous articles about cutting losses early and letting winning trades run and this is where the ‘pain’ element comes in.

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What Are The Best Leagues For Summer Football Trading?

With the Winter football leagues drawing to a close in May, I thought it would be good to give you the lowdown on what I believe to be some of the best leagues for football trading over the summer months.

During the winter months, I primarily focus on a number of leagues which are the English Premier League, Italian Serie A and the German Bundesliga. Another favourite of mine is the German Bundesliga 2.

The reason for this is that these are the leagues that year after year, consistently produce the most goals per game.

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Why 95% Of Football Traders Lose And How You Can Avoid Joining Them

It’s a well-known fact that around 95% of football traders lose long term.

I’m sure you will agree that this number is extremely high.

But have you ever thought about why this is?

I mean, it can’t be that 95% of traders are incapable of finding winning trades.

I don’t think so. We all have the knowledge and the tools at our disposal to find our fair share of winners.

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Is This The Optimum Minute To Enter An O2.5/BTTS Trade?

Since August, I’ve traded 395 matches as a part of my 5K Challenge.

If you don’t know, my aim is to turn a £500 bank into £5,000 using the O2.5 and BTTS markets.

With the winter leagues now done and dusted for the next few months, I thought it would be a good time to review my trades since August and see if I can gain any kind of insight.

Before I speak about all of the different stats and the conclusions I’ve come to, I first wanted to mention the main one which I really wanted to get a greater insight on.

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LTD2 E-Book Update Coming Soon

I have recently been testing a new, more simplified way of selecting my lay the draw selections and boy has it been effective.

Not only am I spending less time finding games, but I’m also finding more winners, in turn increasing my strike rate and profits.

Since the 6th of March, I’ve selected 15 LTD2 trades (all published on the website and Telegram channel) and made over 4 pts profit.

It would have been more but came out just before HT in the Juve game with Lazio 1-0 up for a small loss, only to see Juventus score three goals before 60′. Never mind, it’s all about being consistent. Some you win, some you lose.

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5k Challenge Results – Month 4 – Profit +7.64 Pts

Month 4 of my 5K Challenge saw another profit of +7.64 pts or £76.47 to my initial £10 one-point stakes.

As a result of my bank growth, I am now using stakes with a maximum liability of £13, which is 2% of my current bank.

Over the course of month 4 (12th November to 11th December), I traded a total of 41 games with 30 wins and 11 loses (73.17% strike rate).

In total, I staked £324.21 with an average stake of £7.90. This meant that my return or yield on my stakes was 23.58%. Nice!

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How To Maximise Value When Football Trading

In this post, I want to just take a moment to highlight an important aspect to trading football matches, which is how to maximise the value that we are getting.

If you follow me with my 5K Challenge you will know that I usually enter my trades by dripping my stakes after around 10 or 15 minutes.

The timing of my entry and the size stakes I use will very much depend on how the game is progressing and whether goals look likely.

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5k Challenge Results – Month 3 – Profit +5.83 Pts

So we got back on track this month with a profit of +5.83 pts or £58.37 to my current £10 stakes.

In total, I traded 56 games with an average stake of £8.12. Of the 56 trades, 37 were winners giving me a strike rate of 66.07%.

Although I use £10 stakes, they are not always fully matched as I drip my stakes in. If there is an early goal, I may only be partly matched on the full £10.

My total stakes were £455 with a return of £58.37 giving me a Yield for the month of 12.82%.

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