Is This The Optimum Minute To Enter An O2.5/BTTS Trade?

Since August, I’ve traded 395 matches as a part of my 5K Challenge.

If you don’t know, my aim is to turn a £500 bank into £5,000 using the O2.5 and BTTS markets.

With the winter leagues now done and dusted for the next few months, I thought it would be a good time to review my trades since August and see if I can gain any kind of insight.

Before I speak about all of the different stats and the conclusions I’ve come to, I first wanted to mention the main one which I really wanted to get a greater insight on.

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LTD2 E-Book Update Coming Soon

I have recently been testing a new, more simplified way of selecting my lay the draw selections and boy has it been effective.

Not only am I spending less time finding games, but I’m also finding more winners, in turn increasing my strike rate and profits.

Since the 6th of March, I’ve selected 15 LTD2 trades (all published on the website and Telegram channel) and made over 4 pts profit.

It would have been more but came out just before HT in the Juve game with Lazio 1-0 up for a small loss, only to see Juventus score three goals before 60′. Never mind, it’s all about being consistent. Some you win, some you lose.

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5k Challenge Results – Month 4 – Profit +7.64 Pts

Month 4 of my 5K Challenge saw another profit of +7.64 pts or £76.47 to my initial £10 one-point stakes.

As a result of my bank growth, I am now using stakes with a maximum liability of £13, which is 2% of my current bank.

Over the course of month 4 (12th November to 11th December), I traded a total of 41 games with 30 wins and 11 loses (73.17% strike rate).

In total, I staked £324.21 with an average stake of £7.90. This meant that my return or yield on my stakes was 23.58%. Nice!

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How To Maximise Value When Football Trading

In this post, I want to just take a moment to highlight an important aspect to trading football matches, which is how to maximise the value that we are getting.

If you follow me with my 5K Challenge you will know that I usually enter my trades by dripping my stakes in from the start.

I will mainly use four or five chunks starting at kick-off and gradually adding more in as the game progresses. So for example, if doing Over 2.5, adding 0.2 pts at 1.60, 0.2 pts at 1.70, 0.2 pts at 1.80, 0.2 pts at 1.90 and 0.2 at 2.0.

I will usually set these up prior to kick-off. If a goal goes in early I simply cancel any that have not been matched.

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5k Challenge Results – Month 3 – Profit +5.83 Pts

So we got back on track this month with a profit of +5.83 pts or £58.37 to my current £10 stakes.

In total, I traded 56 games with an average stake of £8.12. Of the 56 trades, 37 were winners giving me a strike rate of 66.07%.

Although I use £10 stakes, they are not always fully matched as I drip my stakes in. If there is an early goal, I may only be partly matched on the full £10.

My total stakes were £455 with a return of £58.37 giving me a Yield for the month of 12.82%.

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Telegram Channel Now Added

I’ve now activated my new Telegram channel so that you can be alerted to any 5K Challenge or Lay the Draw selections that I post to the site.

With so many of us now using smartphones, it makes sense to use Telegram.

You can also install the Telegram app to both mobile or desktop platforms.

My channel can be found here

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Do Head To Head Trends Matter In Football Trading?

I’m always researching how to make more money from my Betfair football trading and constantly thinking about the many aspects of pre-game analysis which may help develop a more robust and profitable football trading system.

I recently acquired a new book from our tax-dodging friends at Amazon titled “Data-Driven Football Predictions“, “Constructing The Perfect Over 2.5 Goals Betting Strategy For The English Premier League” – by Martin Chamberlain.

Although I will most likely do a full review of the book shortly, I wanted to mention the main crux of the system in this post which is the head to head or H2H stats and trends of the previous meetings between two teams.

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5k Challenge Results – Month 1 – PROFIT +7.63 Pts

Below you can see my results for my first month attempting my 5k challenge.

Month: 1

Period: 12th August – 11th September 2020

Monthly Profit/Loss: +7.63 pts (£76.34)

Total Staked: £396.82 (Avg Stake £7.63)

Monthly Yield: +19.23%

Running P/L: +7.63 pts (£76.34)

Starting Bank: £500

Current Bank: £576.34

A good start to my 5k Challenge. If I can hit 7.63 pts profit each month my bank will really start to increase with compounding.

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5K Challenge

I recently set myself a new challenge, which is to turn a £500 bank into £5,000.

No easy feat, but I’m optimistic that it can be achieved given sufficient time.

I started my own personal challenge on the 12th of August 2020 and have already got off to a flying start with my bank now standing at £674.73 or +17.47 pts.

I’m currently using maximum stakes of around £13 which is 2% of my trading bank and will use compounding so that as my bank grows, so will my stakes.

I will be publishing my results each month via the blog including my profit and loss figures.

My aim is to use mostly Over 2.5 and BTTS markets.

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The Best Leagues For Lay The Draw

Just a quick update and insights on picking the correct games for LTD2.

As you may know, I’ve now started to publish some of my own selections once again on the site, but wanted to just touch on the best leagues to use if you are picking your own trades.

With the major European leagues not due to start again until September, we are currently trading the Summer leagues.

I generally like the Swedish leagues for LTD, however, this season the Allsvenskan and Superettan have not been good.

As you can see below for the Swedish Allsvenskan, 37% of the matches this season have been a draw!

The Superettan hasn’t fared much better either with 33% of matches a draw and only 2.67 goals per match.

When trading or betting, we need as much of an edge as possible in order to win consistently.

It is, therefore, a no brainer to avoid most of the games in these leagues at this time.

Now compare those above to say the Australian A-League.

So just 20% draws and an average of 2.96 goals per match.

The Norwegian Eliteserien is usually good. Lets take a look at that one.

Not too bad. 24% draws and an average of 3.10 goals per match which is good.

Then there’s the Norwegian 1st Division.

22% draws and 3.46 goals per match on average. Very nice and suitable for LTD2.

May favourite leagues are definitely the winter leagues though such as the English Premier, Italy Serie A, German Bundesliga etc.

English Premier League 2019/20 – 24% and 2.72 goals avg per match

Italy Serie A 2019/20 – 22% and 3.04 avg goals per match.

Germany Bundesliga 2019/20 – 22% and 3.21 avg goals per match.

I will generally avoid the Brazilian leagues as they are usually low scoring. I also don’t like the Portuguese leagues much either.

There are of course no guarantees that a game won’t be a draw at 60/65′ or at full time, but like I say, any advantage/edge/insight that we have pre-match can only help us in the long run.

All the best.