How Do You Define Value In Football Trading?

In a recent interview, cult football trading expert ‘Psychoff‘ was quoted as saying something along the lines of:-

“Value can’t be defined. Value is a feeling.”

This statement really resonates with me, as I believe that many traders put too much emphasis on stats and not enough emphasis on our feelings and intuition.

I myself have subscribed to systems in the past where software is used to show ‘value trades’ or ‘value tips’, but what is value and how do you determine if you have it or not?

For me, value is determined by how we perceive the flow of a football match, the likelyhood of a goal being scored and the odds on offer at the time. It’s not so much about whether you are laying under 2.5 goals or backing over 3.5 goals, but rather the timing of your entry into the trade.

The old adage says that ‘Timing is everything‘ and that most definitely applies to football trading as well.

So what, if two teams historically have four goals per game? That means absolutely nothing to the 22 players on the pitch TODAY. The in-play stats right now may be terrible? Historical stats have no real bearing on a game.

So basing value on pre-game stats and historic data is a bit of a red herring when it comes to finding value. What’s most likely to happen is that you receive a bad dose of variance and get hit with a 0-0! Ouch! What happened there? There was so much VALUE! Where are all the goals that the historical data predicted?

Value has to be based on the ‘feeling‘ you get about how a game is developing at this moment in time and the prices on offer. If you can watch a game then great, you will get a better idea of how things are going and whether a goal is imminent, if not the in-play stats are the next best thing.

It’s a fact that the vast majority of goals in matches are scored AFTER the first 20 minutes. So just waiting for 20 minutes to pass and then entering your trade will give you more value straight off unless of course you are backing the unders. If a goal goes in tough luck. There are many more games to trade. Move on.

If I can’t watch a match, I will record the number of shots and corners and dangerous attacks at 15 minute intervals or use Betfair’s key stats tool for the match. This will then tell me if teams are growing in confidence and which team/teams are most likely to score next or at all. It can also tell me if a game has a good flow about it or whether it’s a dead loss and whether I should just bail out and protect my bank.

If a piece of software says that team A invariably beats team B who are classed a category X team blah blah blah then the price should be 1.50, but today it is 1.70, then that is great value! Poppy cock! It means absolutely jack to the players on the pitch. I can’t see Pep Guardiola saying to his players

Come on guys, we have to perform well today as we are good value on Betfair and going back over the past 10 years we have beaten this team in 8 out of 10 games and scored 25 and conceded just 5 goals

Can you?

Neither can I!

It’s not relevant to today’s game. Different players, different manager, different weather, different pitch, different tactics etc etc.

So therefore, if we remove historical data, stats, programs, software and the like, we come down to the real factors and possibly the only ones you can really base your trading decisions on.

[1] – The in-play stats or the ‘feeling‘ you get when watching a match.
[2] – The price on offer. Is it ‘value’ compared with what is happening on the pitch?

I’m not saying recent stats are of no use, they can be and personally use them when making my selections. Just don’t base your decisions on them entirely.

As you know, with my LTD2/O2.5 system I often only stake 0.5 pts at the start of the match. This is so I can see how it develops and whether to go in after 20 minutes with another half point or play it safe and trade with caution. Maybe use that 0.5 pts if the game picks up later. It gives me more options.

What’s your own take on ‘value’?

SH LTD – The Golden Ticket?

Over the past year or so (yes, that long), I’ve been testing another lay the draw system that you may have previously seen me refer to on the website as ‘LTD3’.

During this time I traded 116 selections and had a win rate of 85.34% (99 wins).

When testing I was trading the selections similar to the LTD2 system in that I would trade out when one team took a two goal lead. However, if the game went beyond 65’, I would let it run and come out when the next goal was scored for a profit or the game ended goalless, which would result in a loss of around 2.5 pts.

Playing the selections like this resulted in very long winning runs, but with the possibility of the odd larger loss. Winning so often is an obvious bonus, but nobody likes losing 2.5 pts ever, so I started thinking about how I could reduce the liability yet maintain a similar strike rate and return.

After analysing my stats for quite some time, I worked out that by only trading the games that were drawing at half time and coming out after the first second half goal, I would have traded 46 selections of which 41 would have been winners; a strike rate of 89.13%.

Although it’s difficult to say what this would mean in terms of points return, I worked it out that for these 46 games, I would have had a return of around 20-25 points. The average draw odds are fairly low at around 3.60 at kick-off.

The selection process is dead simple (although I won’t share that at this point) and trading it is also very easy.

How to trade SH LTD (Second Half Lay The Draw)

  • Wait until half time.
  • If the selection is being drawn i.e. 0-0/1-1/2-2 lay the draw at 2.50 or less for 1 point
  • If a goal is scored, trade out for an instant profit.
  • If a goal isn’t scored you will have a loss of around 1.5 pts or less.

You may have to wait until a few minutes into the second half for the odds to hit 2.50.

With the high strike rate, the wins far outweigh any losses you may have.

Like I say, I can’t share the selection process, but will say that these games have a high probability of NOT being a draw making the second half goal much more likely.

I will be putting the selections out there and adding them to my selection and results emails for paid subscribers. If you are subscribed, you are free to follow along for now. All I would say is if you do want to trade them, do not over-stake. Keep your stakes small while we get a better idea of its long term viability.

I will be adding a new spreadsheet and will link to this from the results email like I do with the LTD2 results.

I think many people like a second half system and as we know, more goals are scored in the second half than the first. So I think with that in mind coupled with my excellent results in testing, I believe this will give us all some really good returns.

There is absolutely no charge for this extra system to existing subscribers of my service, although if it does prove to be very profitable other new subscribers will have to pay for the pleasure. 😉 It also doesn’t affect the current LTD2 system or service that I currently provide. Nothing changes there.

Looks like I will have the first selections for this system on Saturday, although like I say, they will need to be drawing at half-time to trade them.

Let’s see how it goes!

I still have a few places left at the introductory price of my service. If you would like to sign-up at the reduced rate (which will never change) you can do so via the homepage here.

Working On A New Lay The Draw Strategy

I’m currently working on a new Lay the Draw strategy that promises to be a real bank booster!

It’s all theoretical at the moment, but I will be testing the new system on and off over the next month or two and will report back with my results via the website once done.

My trading results have been good over the past 6 months and the bank has grown nicely; however, I still feel that that there is room for improvement and that I can make my current systems and selection processes more refined and potentially more profitable.

That’s the plan anyway.

So stay tuned and keep coming back to the site or sign-up to my newsletter for further updates.

When Should You Exit A Lay The Draw Football Trade?

This is something many new football traders have trouble with.

The most important point for me is to be consistent.

Some of us are more cautious than others. Some like a greater degree of risk where others prefer less. Either way is fine, but you must be consistent.

Continue reading “When Should You Exit A Lay The Draw Football Trade?”