What Are The Best Leagues For Summer Football Trading?

With the Winter football leagues drawing to a close in May, I thought it would be good to give you the lowdown on what I believe to be some of the best leagues for football trading over the summer months.

During the winter months, I primarily focus on a number of leagues which are the English Premier League, Italian Serie A and the German Bundesliga. Another favourite of mine is the German Bundesliga 2.

The reason for this is that these are the leagues that year after year, consistently produce the most goals per game.

For example, in 2020/21 each of those leagues produced the following goal averages.

Serie A – 3.06 (goals per game)
Bundesliga – 3.03
Bundesliga 2 – 2.89
Premier League – 2.69

France’s Ligue 1 wasn’t too bad in 2020/21 with 2.76 goals per game, however, for me, La Liga with only 2.51 goals per game was definitely one to avoid if looking for a lot of goals.

As I write this, these are the stats for the same leagues for 2021/2022 according to the Footystats website.

Bundesliga – 3.07 (goals per game)
Bundesliga 2 – 2.89
Serie A – 2.85
Premier League – 2.78
Ligue 1 – 2.68
La Liga – 2.53

So pretty consistent, although Serie A is down on last year and has some work to do to hit last year’s 3.06. France and Spain have both been on the low side as was the case last season.

It doesn’t mean that I won’t look at other leagues. It’s just that I can usually find a sufficient number of trades from these leagues without going mad and over-trading.

The low-risk strategies that I use including the 5K Challenge and LTD2 are strategies that look for goals so it’s only logical that if I want goals I should trade the leagues with the best goal averages per game.

So what are the best summer leagues to trade?

Ok, so let’s look at the leagues that can be good to trade during the summer period.

First, we will look at the average number of goals for the last season.

Goals Per Game

Norway Division 1 – 3.19 (goals per game)
Norway Eliteserien – 3.06
Iceland Urvalsdeild – 2.83
USA MLS – 2.78
Sweden Allsvenskan – 2.66
Sweden Superettan – 2.55

Which leagues are the best for O2.5 and BTTS?

As you may know, my 5K Challenge strategy predominantly looks for teams that have had a high combined total of O2.5/BTTS games.

So which are the best summer leagues for these two markets?

Let’s have a look.

Over 2.5 Goals

Norway Division 1 – 60%
Norway Eliteserien – 56%
Iceland Urvalsdeild – 55%
USA MLS – 53%
Sweden Allsvenskan – 50%
Sweden Superettan – 47%

BTTS

Norway Division 1 – 67%
Norway Eliteserien – 60%
USA MLS – 59%
Sweden Superettan – 53%
Sweden Allsvenskan – 50%
Iceland Urvalsdeild – 47%

Source: Footystats.org

So as you can see from the data above for the 2020/2021 season, the two top leagues were in Norway and would be an obvious choice when looking for goals.

Are there any other leagues to trade during the summer?

Yes, there are a few you may want to check out.

The Finnish Veikkausliiga isn’t too bad with an average of 2.52 goals scored per game in 2021. Over 2.5 goals was 45% with BTTS at 44%.

So a bit lower than the leagues listed further up, but worth a look just the same.

The Chinese Super League is up and coming and where a lot of top professionals head when they are close to hanging up their boots. Not so much because of the quality of the football, but rather the big pay cheques that are on offer.

Anyway, in 2021, the CSL produced 2.54 goals on average, 45% of games having three or more goals and 51% seeing BTTS land.

Then there is the little known, Singapore S League. With a staggering 3.98 goals per game on average in 2021, backing the unders could be a really bad move here!!

Liquidity may be low, so always check that. Also, check that the matches are going in play.

Another you may want to consider is the Irish Premier Division with an average of 2.54 goals per game in 2021. Over 2.5 goals was hit in 47% of matches with BTTS 55%.

We also have the Japanese J League with games being played early in the day. With 2.43 goals per game in 2021, I can’t say I am a massive fan, however, it may be one you wish to check out.

Other than that there are the South American leagues such as those in Brazil and Argentina. Personally, I avoid these as they are not only generally low scoring but also played well past my bedtime.

CONCLUSION

When the winter leagues come to a close, your football trading doesn’t have to end. There are still opportunities to be found in many of these other countries.

The Norwegian leagues are a favourite of mine, especially the Eliteserien.

The Swedish Allsvenskan is another league I will usually trade over the summer months.

Both of these leagues are well established, produce a fair number of goals and have good liquidity on Betfair.

Whichever leagues you decide to trade, I wish you all the best of luck over the summer!

If you want to learn how to make a consistent profit football trading, check out my range of football strategy ebooks.

Is This The Optimum Minute To Enter An O2.5/BTTS Trade?

Since August, I’ve traded 395 matches as a part of my 5K Challenge.

If you don’t know, my aim is to turn a £500 bank into £5,000 using the O2.5 and BTTS markets.

With the winter leagues now done and dusted for the next few months, I thought it would be a good time to review my trades since August and see if I can gain any kind of insight.

Before I speak about all of the different stats and the conclusions I’ve come to, I first wanted to mention the main one which I really wanted to get a greater insight on.

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5k Challenge Results – Month 5 – Profit +2.53 Pts

Despite a somewhat patchy month in terms of results, I still managed to return a profit of +2.53 pts or £25.34 to my initial £10 one-point stakes.

As a result of my bank growth, I am now using stakes with a maximum liability of around £13, which is approximately 2% of my current bank.

Over the course of month 5 (12th December to 11th January), I traded a total of 67 games with 43 wins and 24 loses (64.17% strike rate).

In total, I staked £406.04 with an average stake of £6.06. This meant that my return or yield on my stakes was 6.24%.

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5k Challenge Results – Month 4 – Profit +7.64 Pts

Month 4 of my 5K Challenge saw another profit of +7.64 pts or £76.47 to my initial £10 one-point stakes.

As a result of my bank growth, I am now using stakes with a maximum liability of £13, which is 2% of my current bank.

Over the course of month 4 (12th November to 11th December), I traded a total of 41 games with 30 wins and 11 loses (73.17% strike rate).

In total, I staked £324.21 with an average stake of £7.90. This meant that my return or yield on my stakes was 23.58%. Nice!

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How To Maximise Value When Football Trading

In this post, I want to just take a moment to highlight an important aspect to trading football matches, which is how to maximise the value that we are getting.

If you follow me with my 5K Challenge you will know that I usually enter my trades by dripping my stakes after around 10 or 15 minutes.

The timing of my entry and the size stakes I use will very much depend on how the game is progressing and whether goals look likely.

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5k Challenge Results – Month 3 – Profit +5.83 Pts

So we got back on track this month with a profit of +5.83 pts or £58.37 to my current £10 stakes.

In total, I traded 56 games with an average stake of £8.12. Of the 56 trades, 37 were winners giving me a strike rate of 66.07%.

Although I use £10 stakes, they are not always fully matched as I drip my stakes in. If there is an early goal, I may only be partly matched on the full £10.

My total stakes were £455 with a return of £58.37 giving me a Yield for the month of 12.82%.

Continue reading “5k Challenge Results – Month 3 – Profit +5.83 Pts”

Telegram Channel Now Added

I’ve now activated my new Telegram channel so that you can be alerted to any 5K Challenge or Lay the Draw selections that I post to the site.

With so many of us now using smartphones, it makes sense to use Telegram.

You can also install the Telegram app to both mobile or desktop platforms.

My channel can be found here https://t.me/myfootytrading

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5k Challenge Results – Month 2 – Loss -6.17 Pts

Following an excellent start to my 5K Challenge, in the second month, I recorded a 6.17 pt loss.

This brings my total P/L so far for the two months to +1.45 pts. So still in profit.

In total, I traded just 21 games, with only 10 winners and 11 losers.

Critically, out of my 11 losers, 10 were 1 point losses. I just couldn’t seem to find any late goals.

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5k Challenge Results – Month 1 – PROFIT +7.63 Pts

Below you can see my results for my first month attempting my 5k challenge.

Month: 1

Period: 12th August – 11th September 2020

Monthly Profit/Loss: +7.63 pts (£76.34)

Total Staked: £396.82 (Avg Stake £7.63)

Monthly Yield: +19.23%

Running P/L: +7.63 pts (£76.34)

Starting Bank: £500

Current Bank: £576.34

A good start to my 5k Challenge. If I can hit 7.63 pts profit each month my bank will really start to increase with compounding.

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5K Challenge

I recently set myself a new challenge, which is to turn a £500 bank into £5,000.

No easy feat, but I’m optimistic that it can be achieved given sufficient time.

I started my own personal challenge on the 12th of August 2020 and have already got off to a flying start with my bank now standing at £674.73 or +17.47 pts.

I’m currently using maximum stakes of around £13 which is 2% of my trading bank and will use compounding so that as my bank grows, so will my stakes.

I will be publishing my results each month via the blog including my profit and loss figures.

My aim is to use mostly Over 2.5 and BTTS markets.

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