Category: Trading Results

+ 1.422 pts

Not a huge profit for March, but a profit none the less of +1.422 points or £14.22 to my £10 stakes.

In total I traded 34 matches with 23 winners giving me a strike rate of 67.64%.

I traded a total of £340 with a return on investment (ROI) of 4.18%.

Below you can see my stats for March 2019.

All Trades: 23/34 – 67.64%
Longest Losing Run: 2
Longest Winning Run: 5
Large Losses: 6/34 – 17.64%
Large Wins: 9/34 – 26.47%
Small Wins: 15/34 – 44.11%
Small Losses: 5/34 – 14.70%
0-0 at HT: 9/34 – 26.47%
Over 2.5 Games: 21/34 – 61.76%
0-0 at FT: 0/34 – 0%
Average goals per game: 3.23 (110 goals)

March P/L: +1.422 pts (+£14.22)
Starting Bank (29th September 2018): £500
Current Bank: £474.63

+ 2.785 pts

February saw a better month for me, with 27 winners out of 42 LTD2 trades with a strike rate of 64.28%.

In total, I recorded a profit of +2.785 points or £27.85 to my £10 stakes.

I traded a total of £420 giving me a return on investment of +6.63%.

Below you can see a breakdown of my results for February.

All Trades: 27/42 – 64.28%
Longest Losing Run: 4
Longest Winning Run: 8
Large Losses: 9/42 – 21.42%
Large Wins: 9/42 – 21.42%
Small Wins: 18/42 – 42.85%
Small Losses: 6/42 – 14.28%
0-0 at HT: 14/42 – 33.33%
Over 2.5 Games: 23/42 – 54.76%
0-0 at FT: 2/42 – 4.76%
Average goals per game: 2.88 (121 goals)

February P/L: +2.785 pts (+£27.85)
Starting Bank (29th September 2018): £500
Current Bank: £458.85

- 2.9 pts

January wasn’t a great month for me, with a trading loss of 2.9 pts/£29.00 for my LTD2 system.

In total I traded 46 matches with a total of 25 winners, a strike rate of 54.34%.

Below is a breakdown of my results for January.

All Trades: 25/46 – 54.34%
Longest Losing Run: 5
Longest Winning Run: 8
Large Losses: 12/46 – 26.08%
Large Wins: 10/46 – 21.73%
Small Wins: 15/46 – 32.60%
Small Losses: 9/46 – 19.56%
0-0 at HT: 16/46 – 34.78%
Over 2.5 Games: 26/46 – 56.52%
0-0 at FT: 2/46 – 4.34%
Average goals per game: 2.76 (127 goals)

January P/L: -2.9 pts (-£29.00)
Starting Bank (29th September 2018): £500
Current Bank: £451

+ 3.354 pts

During December, we reverted back to the original LTD2 system, which I am pleased to say has performed a lot better giving us a total profit for the month of 3.354 pts or £33.54 using £10 stakes.

In total we traded 56 matches with a total of 39 winners, a strike rate of 69.64%.

We found just one 0-0 draw out of 56 matches, which makes a real difference to the bank balance. This compares to November where we managed to find four.

In terms of return on investment, we had a return of 7.37% with total stakes of £455.00

I am expecting another positive month in January to get the bank moving in the right direction once again after November’s poor month.

My selection method is really starting to fire again after I made a number of major changes to my selection criteria. I am also using a new set of tools that are providing me with a wealth of data to help with my selections.

Below you can see a breakdown and some stats for December.

All Trades: 39/56 – 69.64%
Longest Losing Run: 3
Longest Winning Run: 9
Large Losses: 9/56 – 16.07%
Large Wins: 13/56 – 23.21%
Small Wins: 26/56 – 46.42%
Small Losses: 8/56 – 14.28%
0-0 at HT: 12/56 – 21.42%
Over 2.5 Games: 28/56 – 50.00%
0-0 at FT: 1/56 – 1.78%
Average goals per game: 2.78 (156 goals)

December P/L:+3.354 pts (+£33.54)
Starting Bank (29th September 2018): £500
Current Bank: £480

November was a very poor month with a total loss of 5.508 pts.

During the month, we used a variation of LTD and Over 2.5 (LTD/O2.5) and it didn’t perform so well unfortunately. We have since reverted to the normal LTD2 system (see December’s results) which has performed much better.

Below you can see a breakdown and some stats for November.

All Trades: 17/36 – 47.22%
Longest Losing Run: 4
Longest Winning Run: 3
Large Losses: 10/36 – 27.77%
Large Wins: 6/36 – 16.66%
Small Wins: 11/36 – 30.55%
Small Losses: 9/36 – 25.00%
0-0 at HT: 15/36 – 41.66%
Over 2.5 Games: 19/36 – 52.77%
0-0 at FT: 4/36 – 11.11%
Average goals per game: 2.66 (96 goals)

November P/L: -5.508 pts (-£55.08)
Starting Bank (29th September 2018): £500
Current Bank: £446.46

October was the start of my second run for the LTD2 system.

We actually started the new run and paid subscription service on the 29th September, but I will combine those couple of days into October’s results below.

In total we traded 63 games and won 39 of those giving us a win rate of 61.90%. Not too bad, but I would have preferred to see that at around 70%.

To breakdown the results, we had 10 larger wins, 29 small wins, 14 larger losses and 10 small losses.

We made a tiny loss on our first month overall of just 0.094 points using a starting bank of £500 and 2% stakes (£10). This means that the first month saw a loss of £0.94 and saw my bank reduced a fraction to £499.06. Your own figures may be slightly different.

In total I staked £603 and saw a return on investment (ROI) of -0.155%.

So pretty much scratch this month, which is never a bad thing and shows how resilient the system is considering we didn’t get off to a great start. I even managed to find six 0-0’s, which I have never managed to do in one month, so in hindsight, scratch was a good result.

Something very important to note is that we started the LTD2 system slightly differently than before in that we held back 0.5 pts to back over 2.5 goals around 20 minutes if the in-play stats were good enough.

On the 23rd of October, I decided to abolish this and just revert to the way I traded LTD2 previously, but with a slight twist in that we now stake 0.8 pts from kick-off and hold back 0.2 pts to use for insurance purposes late in the game if we had a loss at around 65 minutes.

The feedback I have received about this has been very positive, which I was glad to hear.

This approach has been working really well and since the 23rd we have made a steady profit of 3.3 points. Now the major leagues are in full flight, I am expecting some good profits over the next couple of months onwards.

I will monitor how successful the insurance element is over time. If it doesn’t give us a good return over the long term, then it may be more profitable to just stick with a straight one point LTD with no insurance.

In terms of goals, my selection method found a total of 171 goals with an average of 2.71 goals per game, which I think is very good.

Below you can see a breakdown and some stats for October.

All Trades: 39/63 – 61.90%
Longest Losing Run: 4
Longest Winning Run: 7
Large Losses: 14/63 – 22.22%
Large Wins: 10/63 – 15.87%
Small Wins: 29/63 – 46.03%
Small Losses: 10/63 – 15.87%
0-0 at HT: 19/63 – 30.15%
Over 2.5 Games: 33/63 – 52.38%
0-0 at FT: 6/63 – 9.52%
Average goals per game: 2.71 (171 goals)

October P/L: -0.094 pts (-£0.94)
Starting Bank (29th September 2018): £500
Current Bank: £499.06

The new subscription based Lay the Draw service is now live

If you would like to subscribe and start earning a consistent profit trading football on Betfair, please choose one of the subscription packages here.

+ 2.731 pts

June was a profitable month to help from my loss in May.

In total I traded just 12 matches and had a strike rate of 83.33% (10/12), which resulted in a profit of 2.731 pts. In monetary terms, this was a profit for me of £43.24 using an average stake of £15.83 with total stakes for the month of £190.

This meant that for the month I had an ROI (Return on Investment) of 22.75%. Not bad at all!!

I think the numbers for this month are a good lesson and show that if you are selective, patient and trade less, you can still make a decent profit, which over the course of the year can really mount up when you compound your profits.

Here are the raw figures.

Monthly P/L: +2.731 pts – +£43.24

Monthly ROI: +22.75%

Stakes: £15.83 (Average, approx 3% of bank)

Starting Bank: £500 (1st of May 2018)

Current Bank: £488.84

All Trades Strike Rate: 10/12 – 83.33%

LTD2 Strike Rate: 10/12 – 83.33%

0-0 at HT: 4/12 – 33.33%

0-0 at FT: 1/12 – 8.33%

Over 2.5 Games: 8/12 – 66.66%

Longest Losing Run: 1 Game

Longest Winning Run: 9 Games

Large Losses: 2/12- 16.66%

Large Wins: 5/12 – 41.66%

Small Losses: 0/12 – 0%

Small Wins: 4/12 – 33.33%