Monthly Trading Results – October 2018

October was the start of my second run for the LTD2 system.

We actually started the new run and paid subscription service on the 29th September, but I will combine those couple of days into October’s results below.

In total we traded 63 games and won 39 of those giving us a win rate of 61.90%. Not too bad, but I would have preferred to see that at around 70%.

To breakdown the results, we had 10 larger wins, 29 small wins, 14 larger losses and 10 small losses.

We made a tiny loss on our first month overall of just 0.094 points using a starting bank of £500 and 2% stakes (£10). This means that the first month saw a loss of £0.94 and saw my bank reduced a fraction to £499.06. Your own figures may be slightly different.

In total I staked £603 and saw a return on investment (ROI) of -0.155%.

So pretty much scratch this month, which is never a bad thing and shows how resilient the system is considering we didn’t get off to a great start. I even managed to find six 0-0’s, which I have never managed to do in one month, so in hindsight, scratch was a good result.

Something very important to note is that we started the LTD2 system slightly differently than before in that we held back 0.5 pts to back over 2.5 goals around 20 minutes if the in-play stats were good enough.

On the 23rd of October, I decided to abolish this and just revert to the way I traded LTD2 previously, but with a slight twist in that we now stake 0.8 pts from kick-off and hold back 0.2 pts to use for insurance purposes late in the game if we had a loss at around 65 minutes.

The feedback I have received about this has been very positive, which I was glad to hear.

This approach has been working really well and since the 23rd we have made a steady profit of 3.3 points. Now the major leagues are in full flight, I am expecting some good profits over the next couple of months onwards.

I will monitor how successful the insurance element is over time. If it doesn’t give us a good return over the long term, then it may be more profitable to just stick with a straight one point LTD with no insurance.

In terms of goals, my selection method found a total of 171 goals with an average of 2.71 goals per game, which I think is very good.

Below you can see a breakdown and some stats for October.

All Trades: 39/63 – 61.90%
Longest Losing Run: 4
Longest Winning Run: 7
Large Losses: 14/63 – 22.22%
Large Wins: 10/63 – 15.87%
Small Wins: 29/63 – 46.03%
Small Losses: 10/63 – 15.87%
0-0 at HT: 19/63 – 30.15%
Over 2.5 Games: 33/63 – 52.38%
0-0 at FT: 6/63 – 9.52%
Average goals per game: 2.71 (171 goals)

October P/L: -0.094 pts (-£0.94)
Starting Bank (29th September 2018): £500
Current Bank: £499.06

The new subscription based Lay the Draw service is now live

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The new Lay the Draw service is now live!

The initial response to the new service has been excellent and for those who have not already expired I still have a few places remaining at the current prices.

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Sign-up asap as the current offer only applies to the first 100 subscribers!!

All the best.

Rob

 

Monthly Trading Results – June 2018

+ 2.731 pts

June was a profitable month to help from my loss in May.

In total I traded just 12 matches and had a strike rate of 83.33% (10/12), which resulted in a profit of 2.731 pts. In monetary terms, this was a profit for me of £43.24 using an average stake of £15.83 with total stakes for the month of £190.

This meant that for the month I had an ROI (Return on Investment) of 22.75%. Not bad at all!!

I think the numbers for this month are a good lesson and show that if you are selective, patient and trade less, you can still make a decent profit, which over the course of the year can really mount up when you compound your profits.

Here are the raw figures.

Monthly P/L: +2.731 pts – +£43.24

Monthly ROI: +22.75%

Stakes: £15.83 (Average, approx 3% of bank)

Starting Bank: £500 (1st of May 2018)

Current Bank: £488.84

All Trades Strike Rate: 10/12 – 83.33%

LTD2 Strike Rate: 10/12 – 83.33%

0-0 at HT: 4/12 – 33.33%

0-0 at FT: 1/12 – 8.33%

Over 2.5 Games: 8/12 – 66.66%

Longest Losing Run: 1 Game

Longest Winning Run: 9 Games

Large Losses: 2/12- 16.66%

Large Wins: 5/12 – 41.66%

Small Losses: 0/12 – 0%

Small Wins: 4/12 – 33.33%

Monthly Trading Results – May 2018

- 5.744 pts

Due to my personal work load, I will no longer be posting daily results to the site, but will instead just post my combined results and figures for each month.

My selections will always be posted to the site and sent out to my newsletter subscribers as normal.

May was without doubt my worst month of trading my LTD2/3 systems. I got off to a poor start to the month and due to a limited number of trades for the month in total (just 23) I was not able to recover this position.

In hindsight, I should have left those end of season games alone as they do have a tendency of throwing up unexpected results with teams not having too much to play for and players tired after a long season.

I’m confident that June will be a better month and that we can get back to winning ways now that the Scandinavian and other leagues are in full swing.

Here are my results for May.

Monthly P/L: -5.744 pts – -£54.40

Monthly ROI: -24.95%

Stakes: £9.47 (Average, approx 1% of bank)

Starting Bank: £500 (1st of May 2018)

Current Bank: £445.60

All Trades Strike Rate: 13/23 – 56.52%

LTD2 Strike Rate: 13/23 – 56.52%

LTD3 Strike Rate: No trades

0-0 at HT: 8/23 – 34.78%

0-0 at FT: 1/23 – 4.34%

Over 2.5 Games: 12/23 – 52.17%

Longest Losing Run: 4 Games

Longest Winning Run: 4 Games

Large Losses: 8/23- 34.78%

Large Wins: 1/23 – 4.34%

Small Losses: 2/23 – 8.69%

Small Wins: 11/23 – 47.82%

Trading Results – 16th May 2018

+ 0.072 pts

17:00 – Norway Eliteserien – Molde v Stromsgodset (2-0) – Profit 0.194 pts

0-0 at HT. 1-0 on 56′ and traded out soon after for small profit. Finished 2-0.

17:00 – Norway Eliteserien – Brann v Haugesund (1-1) – Loss 0.122 pts

0-0 at HT. 0-1 on 54′. Traded out around 60′ for small loss. Finished 1-1.

18:00 – Sweden Allsvenskan – Hammarby v Malmo (3-2) – Scratch

0-1 on 19′, 1-1 on 36′ and HT. 1-2 on 46′, still 1-2 around 60′ so traded out for scratch. Finished 3-2.

Daily Total: +0.072 pts (To average stakes)

Monthly P/L: -6.258 pts (To average stakes)

Current Stakes: £9.00 (Usually 2% of bank)

Starting Bank: £500 (1st of May 2018)

Current Bank: £441.61

All Trades Strike Rate: 9/18 – 50.00%

LTD2 Strike Rate: 9/18 – 50.00%

0-0 at HT: 6/18 – 33.33%

0-0 at FT: 1/18 – 5.55%

Over 2.5 Games: 9/18 – 50.00%

Large Wins: 0/18 – 0%

Large Losses: 7/18 – 38.88%

Small Wins: 8/18 – 44.44%

Small Losses: 2/18 – 11.11%

Trading Results – 13th May 2018

+ 0.006 pts

16:30 – Sweden Allsvenskan – Orebro v Hammarby (1-2) – Loss 0.246 pts

1-0 on 13′, Red card Orebro on 38′. Traded out on HT for a small loss due to the red card. Finished 1-2.

17:00 – Norway Eliteserien – Stromsgodset v Sarpsborg (1-2) – Profit 0.253 pts

1-0 on 7′ and HT. Traded out around 60′ for a small profit. Finished 1-2.

17:00 – Norway Eliteserien – Tromso v Lillestrom (1-2) – Scratch

0-1 on 22′, 0-2 on 26′, 1-2 on 45 and HT. Still 1-2 around 60′ so traded out for scratch.

Daily Total: +0.006 pts (To average stakes)

Monthly P/L: -6.280 pts (To average stakes)

Current Stakes: £9.00 (Usually 2% of bank)

Starting Bank: £500 (1st of May 2018)

Current Bank: £440.96

All Trades Strike Rate: 7/15 – 46.66%

LTD2 Strike Rate: 7/15 – 46.66%

0-0 at HT: 4/15 – 26.66%

0-0 at FT: 1/15 – 6.66%

Over 2.5 Games: 8/15 – 53.33%

Large Wins: 0/15 – 0%

Large Losses: 7/15 – 46.66%

Small Wins: 7/15 – 46.66%

Small Losses: 1/15 – 6.66%

Trading Results – 12th May 2018

- 1.91 pts

Been struggling a bit this month for sure. Definitely my worst month of trading so far. Hopefully we can recoup some of the losses in the coming weeks to finish the month in better shape.

14:30 – Germany Bundesliga – Hoffenheim v Dortmund (3-1) – Profit 0.090 pts

1-0 on 26′ and HT. 1-1 on 58′, 2-1 on 63′. I traded out at this point for a tiny profit. Finished 3-1.

17:00 – Norway Eliteserien – Start v Brann (0-1) – Loss 1 pt

0-0 at HT. Still 0-0 around 65′ when stop loss reached. Finished 0-1.

I really felt that a goal was coming from Brann and it did on 75′. I made a profit, but as it was slightly beyond the 1 pt liability, I will put it down as a 1 pt loss.

20:00 – France Ligue 1 – Monaco v St Etienne (0-1) – Loss 1 pt

0-0 on HT. Still 0-0 around 65′ when stop loss reached. Finished 1-0.

I did lay the draw again late on and Monaco obliged with the winning goal on 91′ which wiped out my losses. I won’t be including that in my stats though so it was a 1 pt loss for this match.

Daily Total: -1.910 pts (To average stakes)

Monthly P/L: -6.221 pts (To average stakes)

Current Stakes: £9.00 (Usually 2% of bank)

Starting Bank: £500 (1st of May 2018)

Current Bank: £440.90

All Trades Strike Rate: 5/12 – 41.66%

LTD2 Strike Rate: 5/12 – 41.66%

0-0 at HT: 4/12 – 33.33%

0-0 at FT: 1/12 – 11.11%

Over 2.5 Games: 5/12 – 41.66%

Large Wins: 0/12 – 0%

Large Losses: 7/12 – 50.00%

Small Wins: 5/12 – 41.66%

Small Losses: 0/12 – 0%

Trading Results – 11th May 2018

+ 0.637 pts

19:45 – France Ligue 1 – Guingamp v Marseille (3-3) Profit 0.107 pts

0-1 on 2′, 0-2 on 14′, 1-2 on 42′ and HT. 2-2 on 52′, 3-2 on 70′ and I traded out at this point for a tiny profit.

I decided to stay in when Marseille went 0-2 up, but backed 2-2 for small amounts to cover my full liability. When Guingamp went 3-2 up, I was able to trade out for a very small profit.

19:45 – France Ligue 2 – US Quevilly v Lorient (3-0) Profit 0.330 pts

1-0 on 7′, 2-0 on 42′ and HT. I traded out for a profit at HT as Quevilly were the underdogs in the match.

19:45 – France Ligue 2 – Chateauroux v Brest (2-2) – Profit 0.200 pts

0-1 on 35′ and HT. Still 0-1 on 60′ so traded out for a small profit.

Daily Total: +0.637 pts (To average stakes)

Monthly P/L: -4.338 pts (To average stakes)

Current Stakes: £9.00 (Usually 2% of bank)

Starting Bank: £500 (1st of May 2018)

Current Bank: £458.09

All Trades Strike Rate: 4/9 – 44.44%

LTD2 Strike Rate: 4/9 – 44.44%

0-0 at HT: 2/9 – 22.22%

0-0 at FT: 1/9 – 11.11%

Over 2.5 Games: 4/9 – 44.44%

Large Wins: 0/9 – 0%

Large Losses: 5/9 – 55.55%

Small Wins: 4/9 – 44.44%

Small Losses: 0/9 – 0%

Trading Results – 6th May 2018

- 3 pts

14:00 – Italy Serie A- Lazio v Atalanta (1-1) – Loss 1 pt

0-1 on 2′, 1-1 on 24 and HT. Still 1-1 when stop loss reached. Finished 1-1.

15:00 – Denmark Superliga – Copenhagen v Brondby (1-1) – Loss 1 pt

0-1 on 2′, 1-1 on 43′ and HT. Still 1-1 when stop loss reached. Finished 1-1.

20:05 – France Ligue 1 – Marseille v Nice (2-1) – Loss 1 pt

0-1 on 5′, 1-1 on 13′ and HT. Still 1-1 when stop loss reached. Finished 2-1.

That has to be the worst run for me, ever! I now regret picking those end of Winter league games!

I had a similar run in February when the opening four trades of the month (on the same day) were all one point losses, yet I still ended the month over 4 pts up. So here’s hoping for a similar change in fortune over the next few weeks. I will probably be focusing more on the summer leagues from this point onward….

Losing runs do happen. It’s just a case of riding the storm. Prior to this weekend I had a run of 12  wins out of 13 so I can’t complain. As traders and gamblers, we have to take the rough with the smooth. It’s all part of the conditioning and development of the traders ‘mindset’.

Our profits are always made over the long term, never over the short term.

Daily Total: -3 pts (To average stakes)

Monthly P/L: -4.765 pts (To average stakes)

Current Stakes: £10.00 (Usually 2% of bank)

Starting Bank: £500 (1st of May 2018)

Current Bank: £452.35

All Trades Strike Rate: 1/6 – 16.66%

LTD2 Strike Rate: 1/6 – 16.66%

0-0 at HT: 2/6 – 33.33%

0-0 at FT: 1/6 – 16.66%

Over 2.5 Games: 1/6 – 16.66%

Large Wins: 0/6 – 0%

Large Losses: 5/6 – 83.33%

Small Wins: 1/6 – 16.66%

Small Losses: 0/6 – 0%

Trading Results – 5th May 2018

- 1.765 pts

14:30 – Germany Bundesliga 1 – Werder Bremen v Leverkusen (0-0) – Loss 1 pt

0-0 at HT. Still 0-0 when stop loss reached around 70′. Finished 0-0.

Not a good start to the year. I managed to find the only 0-0 in the Bundesliga!! The 0-0 correct score price was actually 30.0 at kick-off for this one!

17:30 – Spain La Liga – Celta Vigo v Deportivo (1-1) – Profit 0.235 pts

1-0 on 13′ and HT. Had to trade out at HT on this one as I had to go out a short notice. Finished 1-1.

19:45 – Spain La Liga – Villareal v Valencia (1-0) – Loss 1 pt

0-0 at HT. Still 0-0 when stop loss reached. Finished 1-0.

I was actually out and couldn’t get a signal on my phone so had to let this match run. By the time I did get a signal Villareal had scored right near the end of the match and I managed to trade out for a good profit. Would have cost me 2.8 pts! I won’t record it as a win though as it was still 0-0 when my stop loss was reached. Finished 1-0.

Daily Total: -1.765 pts (To average stakes)

Monthly P/L: -1.765 pts (To average stakes)

Current Stakes: £10.00 (Usually 2% of bank)

Starting Bank: £500 (1st of May 2018)

Current Bank: £482.35

All Trades Strike Rate: 1/3 – 33.33%

LTD2 Strike Rate: 1/3 – 33.33%

0-0 at HT: 2/3 – 66.66%

0-0 at FT: 1/3 – 33.33%

Over 2.5 Games: 0/3 – 0%

Large Wins: 0/3 – 0%

Large Losses: 2/3 – 66.66%

Small Wins: 1/3 – 33.33%

Small Losses: 0/3 – 0%