My MFTS1525 Betfair football trading strategy is one of my favorites for sure.
I currently enjoy a strike rate of around 80% with this little beauty and it is a great strategy to have as a part of your strategy portfolio.
It’s a fact that the vast majority of games end with two goals or more. So needless to say, what we are looking for are matches involving teams that consistently have matches ending with at least two goals or three goals if taking the Over 2.5 option.
How does it Work?
With MFTS1525 you will be backing the “Over 1.5 Goals” in the “Over/Under 1.5 Goals” market or “Over 2.5 Goals” in the “Over/Under 2.5 Goals” market.
As a guide, the odds for the Over 1.5 market will generally be short at the start of the match probably between 1.2 and 1.3 with the odds for the Over 2.5 between 1.5 and 1.8.
One of the most important aspects of this trade is to wait for around 15-20 minutes before entering the trade. This is important for a couple of reasons.
- It allows us to get a feel for the game and ascertain whether there are lots of goal attempts and corners etc.
- It gives us sufficient enough time for the odds to rise.
- It’s a fact that the vast majority of opening goals are scored after the 20 minute mark. This is crucial and is how we will gain an edge. Patient traders will always take from inpatient traders! Remember this as it is very important.
Entering the Trade
By analysing previous matches for the teams involved, we can get a good idea of when the teams generally score. This gives us a “goal window” or when the goals are most likely to go in.
On average there are around 1.1 goals in the first half of most games with around 1.5 goals on average being scored in the second half.
Ideally you will want to back at odds of at least 1.5 but ideally around 2.0. To achieve this you may have to wait for for around 20-30 minutes or so. If a goal goes in before this time, it’s a no trade.
After 20 mins or more of no goals, many inexperienced traders will start getting edgy, bail out of their trades and start laying Over 1.5 or Over 2.5 goals. But of course, they don’t have our knowledge. By analysing data such as first and second half performance tables, we can understand that certain teams perform in certain halves better than others. Some teams start well, but go cold in the second half, with some teams biding their time only to come out in the second half and dominate their opponents.
Why this happens is not always obvious, but perhaps some teams have inspiring coaches who give good half time team talks or maybe fitter and stronger teams are able to get the better of the other team as time goes on. Who knows? But it happens all the time and is something we can take advantage of.
So, you have entered your trade. All you need to do now is to wait for the first goal.
Hopefully, this will come shortly after you enter the trade and preferably in the first half. The earlier the better.
Exiting the Trade
You have two options in order to exit this trade and will depend on your personal trading style.
Once the first goal goes in, you will need to decide whether to let the trade run to maximise profit, or be a little more conservative and lay Under 1.5 for your initial stake, which means you will then be in a no lose situation. You will either win if there is a second goal or make scratch if no further goals are scored. This is my preferred method.
If selecting the Over 2.5 goals market you will need to wait for the second goal to go in. You will then be able to lay Under 2.5 goals for either scratch or profit if the third goal is scored.
If a goal is scored early enough and you are confident in the in-play stats or how the game is being played (if you are watching it) you can let the trade run and hope for another goal or two if backing Over 2.5.
Remember though. If you let the trade run your profit will slowly be eroded the longer you go without another goal. Eventually you will lose any profit you had and will start to eat back into your stake.
So it’s up to you how you approach this strategy. However you play it, make sure you are consistent.
If there is no first goal, I would recommend taking a controlled loss of around 50%-60% of your stake. If you have had one goal and have decided to let it run, you will be risking 100% of your stake. I don’t recommend doing this unless you are very confident of another goal.
Getting the Right Value Ratio
This is important. Earlier I mentioned that you want to get odds of at least 1.5, but ideally around 1.7-2.0. The reason for this is that you should be expecting to make at least 50% of your stake and lose no more than 50% of your stake.
Lets say that you do 10 trades with £10 stakes and 8 win and 2 lose. If your winners are at shorter odds, say 1.4 and you make £2.00 profit on each one, you will have made just £16.00. You have two losses of around £7.00 which totals £14.00. This leaves you with a total profit of just £2.00. This is because there is no value in the back odds.
This is why you need to aim at odds of around 1.7 or 2.0 (evens). Now lets look at the results.
8 x wins @ 2.0 winning 50% of £10 stake = £40
2 x losses @ 2.0 losing 50% of your £10 stake = £10
Total profit: £30!!
Make sure you always getting good value.
As long as you have a winning edge each month, you will always come out on top and will be increasing your bank. As your bank increases, you can then compound and increase your stakes. Perfect!!
As you can see, this strategy is a real gem. It’s very conservative, low risk and provides very good returns. For me, around 80% strike rate!!!
All you need is one goal if backing Over 1.5 and you should then be able to make scratch at the very least. If backing Over 2.5, you will need two goals at which time you should be able to make scratch at least (as long as the goals do not come late and which case you would have already traded out for a controlled loss)