Trading Review – Weekend 28/29th May (Profit +3.496 pts)

Well, it was another really good weekend with six winners out of six.

In total, I added a further 3.496 points to my trading bank bringing the 5K Challenge profits to date to 59.01 pts (£590.14) and the LTD2 to 19.33 pts (£193.30).

Below I give you a review detailing how I traded each of the matches and my profits.

You will see that I continue to find lots of goals. A total of 28 for this weekend alone!

*** You can click on any of the images below for a larger version.

Saturday, May 28

14:00: Vasteras 2 – 2 Halmstads – LTD2 Hybrid – Won +0.438 pts
16:00: Hacken 4 – 3 Sirius – 5K Challenge – Won +0.275 pts
17:00: Stromsgodset 3 – 2 Viking – 5K Challenge – Won +0.547 pts

Sunday, May 29

14:00: Norrkoping 2 – 2 Elfsborg – 5K Challenge – Won +0.58 pts
17:00: Molde 3 – 1 Bodo Glimt – 5K Challenge – Won +0.361 pts
17:00: Tromso 2 – 2 Lillestrom – 5K Challenge – Won +1.295 pts

Vasteras 2 – 2 Halmstads – LTD2 Hybrid – Won +0.438 pts

This one was the first of two LTD2 trades on Saturday, however, the draw odds for the Hacken game were two high so I ended up trading that one using the 5K Challenge strategy.

As you can see below, I laid the draw at kick-off for 0.5 pts.

I then backed over 2.5 goals for another 0.5 pts.

As you can see, by around 10 minutes, the home side (underdogs) were 2-0 up.

At this point, there was nothing more to do than take my profit of 0.438 pts.

I could have waited, but Halmstads ended up pulling it back to 2-2 which would have been a disaster for my LTD2 trade. Job done.

16:00: Hacken 4 – 3 Sirius – 5K Challenge – Won +0.275 pts

This was due to be an LTD2 trade but the draw price was above 5.0 at kick-off so decided to trade it using the 5K method.

I did the usual and placed around 10% of my one point stake on over 3.5 goals at kick-off. This means I can catch any potential early goals.

I will then wait to see if the game looks lively enough after 10 or 15 minutes and then commit more of my stake.

Hacken started well with some early pressure.

Not too many chances though after 10 mins or so.

After 13 mins or so, Hackens early pressure paid off and they took the lead.

I had just a small amount of my stake in at this point so let it run to see if we could find some more goals. And we did on 17′ and 28′.

I could have let it run but decided to cash out for a profit.

Match ended 4-3.

17:00: Stromsgodset 3 – 2 Viking – 5K Challenge – Won +0.547 pts

The last game on Saturday was Stromsgodset and Viking.

I backed over 2.5 goals for around 15% of my one point stake at kick-off and waited for the action to begin.

After only 10 mins or so, things were looking promising with three shots from inside the box and one corner.

After 17 mins, things were looking good with a total of four shots from inside the box and the one corner. Pressure levels as you can see below were 38 and 22 which means lots of attacking play. You can see below that there had been 18 dangerous attacks in 17 minutes. I like to see one per minute minimum.

I could see by the Betfair O2.5 goals chart that the price had stalled (see yellow below). This is a good sign that goals were due at any time.

And as if by magic, a couple of minutes later Stromsgodset took the lead.

I hadn’t got much stake on as the prices were still a tad low. All I had to do was to see if we could get more goals and manage my position.

This may only appear to be small stakes but it is important that you are consistent in your approach. Trading is a process. A process of weighing up the probabilities and taking the appropriate action.

You can see the pressure in the build-up to the goal.

We found the second on 37′ from Viking setting us up for a profit.

I decided to pop out for a beautiful walk in the Norfolk countryside at this point. I have a nature reserve just feet from my new home so like to get out and hug a few trees from time to time! 😉

Anyways, we got another couple of goals early in the second half securing a profit of 0.547 points.

That was it for Saturday. Next up, Sunday’s trades.

14:00: Norrkoping 2 – 2 Elfsborg – 5K Challenge – Won +0.58 pts

First game on Sunday was from the Swedish Allsvenskan with Norrkoping v Elfsborg. I did the usual and backed O3.5 goals for around 15% of my stake.

After just 5 minutes I could see that the home team were up for it with a shot inside the box and a couple of corners.

I had just started to drip in my stakes to the O2.5 market when the away side took the lead. Game on!

I let my trades run. On 38′, Elfsborg went 2-0 up. Once again, I left it to run as I expected the home side to score.

We didn’t have to wait for Norrkoping to respond, scoring just a couple of minutes later.

At this point with three early goals, I decided to take my profits.

Matched ended 2-2.

17:00: Molde 3 – 1 Bodo Glimt – 5K Challenge – Won +0.361 pts

Next up was Molde v Bodo Glimt from the Norwegian Eliteserien.

I backed O3.5 at kick-off for around 15% of my stake to catch any early goals, which is exactly what we got with Molde going ahead on 3′.

Nothing to do now for me other than to let the trade run in the hope of some more goals.

At HT it was still 1-0.

My patience was then rewarded on 60′ with Molde going 2-0 up.

Bodo got back into it on 65′ giving me a profit. I stayed in with so little stake at risk and more goals appearing to be likely.

On 76′ we were done and dusted with Molde extending their lead to 3-1.

With another profit and 5 from 5 winners, we moved on to the last match of the weekend which was Tromso v Lillestrom.

17:00: Tromso 2 – 2 Lillestrom – 5K Challenge – Won +1.295 pts

I must admit that I had my doubts about this one given the high price for O2.5 at kick-off which I think was over 2.0.

If this is the case I will generally be a little more cautious and stake 0.5 pts. Shame I did on this one as it was another winner.

As you can see above, I started dripping my stakes in starting with O3.5 at kick-off. There were decent chances being created so after 10 mins or so I started to drip more into O2.5 and BTTS.

At 35′ it was still 0-0. Perhaps the markets were right after all…

Around 40′, we then got the breakthrough we were after with Tromso taking the lead. Game on! At this point, my liability was just over 0.5 pts.

Lillestrom then gave us just what we wanted on 59′ making it 1-1.

This meant our BTTS was a winner with a good profit on the O2.5. I had actually cashed out the O3.5 earlier for a small loss as I had some doubts.

We then got our winner on 73′ with the league leaders going in front.

Job done with 1.295 pts profit and 6/6 winners for the weekend.

My total profit for the weekend was +3.496 pts taking my running totals for both strategies to…

Hopefully, that will give you an insight into how I traded the weekend’s games.

I think we have an international break now so will back in a couple of weeks.;-)