October was the start of my second run for the LTD2 system.
We actually started the new run and paid subscription service on the 29th September, but I will combine those couple of days into October’s results below.
In total we traded 63 games and won 39 of those giving us a win rate of 61.90%. Not too bad, but I would have preferred to see that at around 70%.
To breakdown the results, we had 10 larger wins, 29 small wins, 14 larger losses and 10 small losses.
We made a tiny loss on our first month overall of just 0.094 points using a starting bank of £500 and 2% stakes (£10). This means that the first month saw a loss of £0.94 and saw my bank reduced a fraction to £499.06. Your own figures may be slightly different.
In total I staked £603 and saw a return on investment (ROI) of -0.155%.
So pretty much scratch this month, which is never a bad thing and shows how resilient the system is considering we didn’t get off to a great start. I even managed to find six 0-0’s, which I have never managed to do in one month, so in hindsight, scratch was a good result.
Something very important to note is that we started the LTD2 system slightly differently than before in that we held back 0.5 pts to back over 2.5 goals around 20 minutes if the in-play stats were good enough.
On the 23rd of October, I decided to abolish this and just revert to the way I traded LTD2 previously, but with a slight twist in that we now stake 0.8 pts from kick-off and hold back 0.2 pts to use for insurance purposes late in the game if we had a loss at around 65 minutes.
The feedback I have received about this has been very positive, which I was glad to hear.
This approach has been working really well and since the 23rd we have made a steady profit of 3.3 points. Now the major leagues are in full flight, I am expecting some good profits over the next couple of months onwards.
I will monitor how successful the insurance element is over time. If it doesn’t give us a good return over the long term, then it may be more profitable to just stick with a straight one point LTD with no insurance.
In terms of goals, my selection method found a total of 171 goals with an average of 2.71 goals per game, which I think is very good.
Below you can see a breakdown and some stats for October.
All Trades: 39/63 – 61.90%
Longest Losing Run: 4
Longest Winning Run: 7
Large Losses: 14/63 – 22.22%
Large Wins: 10/63 – 15.87%
Small Wins: 29/63 – 46.03%
Small Losses: 10/63 – 15.87%
0-0 at HT: 19/63 – 30.15%
Over 2.5 Games: 33/63 – 52.38%
0-0 at FT: 6/63 – 9.52%
Average goals per game: 2.71 (171 goals)
October P/L: -0.094 pts (-£0.94)
Starting Bank (29th September 2018): £500
Current Bank: £499.06
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