Lay The Draw Strategies: LTD1

I generally have two ways in which I play lay the draw (LTD).

With LTD1 I have the following requirements when making my selections.

Selection Process

  1. A strong home team with good recent form
  2. Home team with odds of 2.0 or lower
  3. Away team with poor recent form.
  4. Historically a good percentage of wins for the home team.
  5. Home team has to be above the away team in the league.
  6. Draw price between 4.0-5.0

So basically I will check the list of games on Betfair the day before and find any games in, which the home team are favourites at 2.0 or below and that the draw is no higher than 5.0.

When I find any games that qualify, I will then check multiple football stats websites to see if they pass the next stage in the selection process. So I could potentially have 10 games on my shortlist, but only one or two (or maybe none) I will trade.

Entering the Trade

Simply lay the draw (I usually use 2% of bank) when you are happy with the price. The price will need to be between 4.0-5.0. But I very rarely go above 5.0. If I do, I adjust my exit odds accordingly. Usually I will trade out at about 2.0. If I layed the draw at 6.0, I would exit if still drawing at 3.0. That way I never risk more than around 1pt.

Exiting the Trade

Different LTD traders will have different methods. My method is to do this.

  1. Ideally we want the strong home team to score first. This will push the draw price up quite a bit and we can then trade out for a decent profit. Job done!
  2. If the underdog scores I will do one of two things. Exit immediately for a small loss or if they have scored early enough, wait to see if the favourites can get back into the game. This will depend on the time of the goal and the in-play stats. Did the underdog score a fluke? Are the favourites actually well on top and look like equalising? If so I will let it run a while to see if they home team can turn it around. All the while that they don’t the small loss will get smaller as the market will think a draw is less likely. This will take time though. Maybe around 60 mins or so.
  3. If the game is still 0-0 or 1-1 at 65 mins or when the draw price hits 2.0 I will trade out. This will generally mean a 1pt loss.

Red cards can also put a spanner-in-the-works and how I respond to this will depend on the in-play stats.

This system is all about selection. You need to be really fussy and only choose the very best trades.

Something I always look for in ANY LTD draw are teams that score early in games. So any average first goal time of around 30 mins or less if possible is ideally. I don’t like trading games where the teams average first goal time is 50 mins or more. So teams that have few 0-0’s at half time is ideal.